中国光伏制造行业展望，2025年1月

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry has been adjusted from "stable" to "stable weakening" by China Chengxin International, indicating a forecast of overall credit quality deterioration in the next 12 to 18 months, although still above a "negative" status level [2][6]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is experiencing intensified supply-demand imbalances, leading to continuous price declines and an expansion of overall industry losses. Companies are responding by reducing operating rates and delaying project launches, which may accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities. However, the potential for price rebounds is limited, and financial challenges and credit risks are increasing for enterprises [2][6][7]. - Despite stable growth expectations for future photovoltaic power installations, the industry is likely to remain in a bottoming phase due to persistent supply-demand excesses and significant losses affecting financial health [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - Domestic photovoltaic installation growth has significantly slowed in 2024 due to land resource constraints, grid connection issues, and fluctuations in feed-in tariffs. The cumulative installed capacity of solar energy in China surpassed hydropower, becoming the second-largest power source in the country [8][9]. - The global photovoltaic installation is expected to maintain growth, but at a slower pace, with 2024's new installations projected between 230 to 260 GW, reflecting a growth rate decline to 6.33% to 20.20% [8][15]. Financial Performance - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is facing a cash flow crisis, with overall losses expanding and increasing debt repayment pressures. The industry is currently in a cash flow loss phase, and while short-term liquidity risks are manageable, the overall credit quality is expected to weaken [6][7][16]. - The upstream supply-demand relationship has changed significantly, with prices for silicon materials and wafers dropping below average cash costs, leading to a reduction in operating rates and an acceleration in the elimination of less competitive firms [16][21]. Conclusion - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on optimizing development environments and addressing overcapacity challenges. The introduction of various policies aimed at promoting healthy industry development is expected to facilitate a gradual recovery in supply-demand balance, although significant improvements are not anticipated in the short term [6][7][11].