中国工程机械行业展望，2025年1月

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stable weakening" investment rating for the engineering machinery industry, indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is expected to weaken slightly over the next 12 to 18 months, but will remain above a "negative" status level [3]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is currently in a phase of slow recovery after hitting a low point, constrained by insufficient effective demand. Despite some products showing signs of recovery, the overall revenue and profit growth for the industry is expected to remain under pressure in 2025 [3][8]. - The report highlights that while some product sales have started to rebound after consecutive declines, the lack of significant improvement in market demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors limits the potential for rapid recovery in the domestic engineering machinery market [7][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a weak recovery phase since 2024, with notable sales recovery in excavators and loaders, while demand for cranes remains sluggish due to low construction industry activity [9][12]. - In 2023, the total sales volume of major products reached 1.7643 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.18%. However, excluding forklifts and aerial work platforms, other engineering machinery products saw a decline of 17.55% [9][10]. - The domestic market for excavators is projected to see a slight increase in sales in 2024, with total sales expected to reach 201,100 units, marking a 3.13% year-on-year growth [10][11]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the engineering machinery industry saw a revenue decline of 4.58% to 810.1 billion yuan, with sample companies achieving a revenue of 292.974 billion yuan, accounting for 36.17% of the total industry revenue [41][43]. - The profitability of sample companies improved, with an average gross profit margin of 23.29%, up approximately 4 percentage points from the previous year. However, the overall revenue growth remains weak due to insufficient market demand [43][44]. - The report anticipates that revenue and profit for engineering machinery companies will continue to show a weak recovery in 2025, driven by a gradual rebound in sales of certain products [40][44]. Export Situation - China's engineering machinery exports reached a historical high of 48.552 billion USD in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 9.59%. However, the growth rate has been slowing down since 2023 [31][32]. - The report indicates that while the export volume of excavators and loaders has declined, the demand for forklifts and aerial work platforms remains robust, supported by strong market conditions in major regions [32][33]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative continues to be a significant driver for exports, with 47.20% of exports directed to countries along this route in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.10% [33].