光伏年度策略报告：底部已现，静待复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Aikang Co., Longi Green Energy, and others, with ratings ranging from A to B [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic cycle is showing signs of bottoming out, with expectations for a recovery in the industry [2]. - Long-term growth trends in demand remain unchanged, with a projected cumulative new photovoltaic installation of 277 GW in China for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.4% [2][22]. - Supply-side overcapacity is expected to gradually ease, with operating rates in the industry at historical lows [3]. - Price trends are reversing, with expectations for upward movement in prices due to various factors [4]. Summary by Sections Demand - The domestic photovoltaic installation demand is stable, with a significant increase in new installations expected in 2024 [22]. - Global market demand is anticipated to grow, particularly in emerging markets, with overall demand projected between 469-533 GW for 2024 [31]. Supply - Operating rates for silicon materials and other components are at historical lows, indicating a potential for supply-side balance [3][33]. - The industry is witnessing the closure of inefficient production capacities, and new capacity additions are being effectively controlled [3][41]. Price - Inventory levels have peaked, but a turning point is expected, with prices beginning to rise [4][44]. - Various factors are driving prices upward, including industry self-regulation and cost control measures [54][85]. Financial Data - The industry is experiencing significant financial strain, with core companies reporting a gross margin of 13.1%, the lowest since previous downturns [61]. - The overall asset-liability ratio for key companies has risen to 65.9%, indicating worsening financial health [68]. Key Recommendations - Focus on "new technology," "supply-side improvements," and "overseas expansion" as primary investment directions [8]. - The BC technology alliance is forming, with high-efficiency technology expected to dominate the market [8][79]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities are recommended due to potential tariff impacts in the U.S. [89][92].