油轮板块深度报告：再论供给：油轮出清在即，看好长期布局机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil tanker fleet is aging significantly, with an average age close to 12 years, and 42% of ships over 15 years old, which has negatively impacted overall fleet turnover and economics [3] - The supply of oil tankers is expected to clear significantly due to increased sanctions and environmental regulations, leading to a potential "negative growth" in capacity over the next four years [3] - The VLCC-TCE index has shown a rapid rebound, increasing from $23,498/day to $55,308/day, reflecting a tightening supply-demand relationship [3] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: Current Status of the Oil Transportation Market - The VLCC-TCE has shown a significant recovery after hitting a low of $24,220/day, with a rebound to $47,832/day due to new sanctions [11] - The global oil tanker fleet has reached a historical high of 2.79 million deadweight tons, but growth is slowing down [12] - Global oil shipping demand has increased from 12.31 trillion ton-miles in 2021 to 14.54 trillion ton-miles in 2024, a growth of 18.1% [15] 2. Detailed Analysis of Oil Transportation Capacity Supply - The effective supply of oil transportation is influenced by both the fleet's capacity and operational mileage [19] - The aging of the oil tanker fleet is significant, with 60% of VL/ULCC ships over 10 years old and 42% over 15 years old [23] - The market is divided into "black," "gray," and "white" fleets due to geopolitical factors, with a significant portion of older ships being absorbed into the black and gray markets [29] 3. Accelerated Supply Clearance and Price Recovery - U.S. sanctions have significantly reduced the survival space for gray fleets, with 440 out of 2,326 oil tankers now sanctioned, representing 18.9% of the fleet [36] - The tightening of supply due to sanctions has led to increased demand for compliant oil and tankers [42] - The VLCC-TCE index has increased by 135.4% in a short period, indicating a strong market response to supply constraints [46] 4. Future Supply Forecast: Continued Capacity Clearance Expected - The current order book for new tankers is low, with only 9.3% of the fleet on order, indicating limited new supply in the coming years [55] - High new ship prices and limited shipyard resources are contributing to the cautious approach of shipowners regarding new builds [55]