HAIER SMART HOME(600690) 兴业证券·2025-01-24 09:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" [26] Core Views - The company is benefiting from domestic sales recovery driven by national subsidies, with a significant improvement in high-end brand demand, particularly for the Casarte brand. The global brand business shows resilience, and the company is expected to continue optimizing efficiency and profitability [3][26]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - In the short term, the company is benefiting from national subsidies, leading to a recovery in domestic sales, particularly in the refrigerator and washing machine categories. Online and offline sales for refrigerators are expected to grow significantly, with online sales increasing by 10% and offline sales by 66% in Q4 2024. The Casarte brand is seeing a notable recovery, with online sales for refrigerators increasing by 59% and washing machines by 42% [10][11]. - In the long term, the air conditioning business is expected to grow, supported by digital transformation initiatives and the integration of logistics services through the acquisition of a supply chain service provider. A new air conditioning production project is being established to enhance production capacity [12]. International Sales - In the short term, the company maintains a leading position in major markets due to its global layout and localized supply chain advantages. The North American market is expected to see improved demand due to anticipated interest rate cuts and real estate recovery. The company is also expanding its presence in emerging markets [23]. - In the long term, the company is diversifying its product offerings through acquisitions, such as the purchase of Electrolux's South African water heater business, which is expected to broaden growth opportunities [23]. Earnings Forecast and Rating - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 2.03, 2.32, and 2.61 yuan, respectively. The corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratios are 13.5x, 11.9x, and 10.5x. The company is positioned as a leader in the home appliance export market, with domestic sales growth driven by national policies and a resilient international brand business [26].