工程机械行业：中国工程机械行业展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stable weakening" investment rating for the engineering machinery industry, indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is expected to weaken slightly over the next 12 to 18 months, but will remain above a "negative" status level [3]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is currently in a slow recovery phase after hitting a low point, constrained by insufficient effective demand. Despite some product sales showing signs of recovery, the overall revenue and profit growth for the industry is expected to remain under pressure in 2025 [3][8]. - The report highlights that while excavators and loaders are beginning to see sales recover, other products like cranes are still facing weak demand due to the low activity levels in the construction sector [7][9]. - The report emphasizes that the domestic engineering machinery market is unlikely to see a rapid rebound in 2025, as the demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors has not shown significant improvement [18][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a weak recovery phase, with different products showing varied trends. Excavators and loaders are leading the recovery, while cranes continue to struggle due to low construction activity [9][12]. - In 2023, the total sales volume of major products reached 1.7643 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.18%. However, excluding certain products, the overall sales volume of other engineering machinery products decreased by 17.55% [9][10]. - The report notes that the domestic market for excavators saw a sales volume of 195,000 units in 2023, a decline of 25.38%, but is projected to recover slightly in 2024 with a total sales volume of 201,100 units, marking a 3.13% increase [10][11]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the revenue of sample companies in the engineering machinery sector decreased by 4.58% in 2023, totaling 810.1 billion yuan, with sample companies accounting for 36.17% of the total industry revenue [41][43]. - Despite the challenges, the profitability of sample companies improved, with operating profit increasing by 36.46% year-on-year, leading to a net profit growth of 39.53% [43][44]. - The report forecasts that revenue and profit for engineering machinery companies will continue to show a weak recovery in 2025, driven by a gradual improvement in sales after a period of decline [40][44]. Export Situation - The report states that China's engineering machinery exports reached a historical high of $48.552 billion in 2023, although the growth rate has slowed due to high base effects and demand fluctuations [31][32]. - Exports of excavators and loaders are expected to decline further in 2025, with the report noting that trade barriers and competition from established brands in the U.S. and Europe pose challenges for Chinese manufacturers [36][39]. - The report highlights that the "Belt and Road" initiative continues to support exports, particularly to Southeast Asia, which accounted for 47.20% of total exports in 2023 [33].