中国医药制造行业展望，2025年1月

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry as stable for the upcoming months [5]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in China is experiencing a transformation driven by innovation and international expansion, with a strong market demand expected to persist into 2025 [4][24]. - The industry is characterized by a mixed performance across sub-sectors, with some areas showing signs of credit quality improvement due to favorable macroeconomic and policy factors [4][25]. - The overall credit fundamentals of the industry are expected to remain stable, although attention is needed on R&D risks and competitive dynamics [4][8]. Industry Fundamentals - The macroeconomic environment has shown steady growth, with GDP growth at 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, and healthcare expenditure significantly outpacing GDP growth [10][9]. - China's total healthcare expenditure rose from 3.53 trillion yuan in 2014 to 9.06 trillion yuan in 2023, with an annual growth rate of approximately 11% [10]. - The healthcare expenditure structure is shifting towards government and social spending, reducing the financial burden on individuals [10]. Financial Performance - The pharmaceutical market's total sales reached 29.304 trillion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [11]. - The revenue and profit growth of large-scale pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises is gradually recovering, indicating strong downstream demand [11]. - The debt growth rate has slowed, and while some sub-sectors have seen weakened repayment indicators, the overall capital structure remains robust [7][8]. Sub-sector Trends - Chemical Raw Materials: The domestic market for chemical raw materials has seen a rebound in both volume and price, with production reaching 3.2 million tons in the first eleven months of 2024, a 6.3% increase year-on-year [26]. - Chemical Preparations: The industry is shifting focus from generic drugs to innovative drugs, with significant advancements in areas like oncology and autoimmune diseases [28]. - Biopharmaceuticals: The sector continues to thrive, with overseas licensing deals reaching $52.57 billion in 2024, a 27.4% increase year-on-year [30]. - Medical Devices: The medical device sector is expanding rapidly, with exports increasing by 2.5% to $10.395 billion in the first half of 2024 [32]. - Traditional Chinese Medicine: The market is facing intense competition, but the number of new drug applications has surged, indicating a potential for growth [37].