中国医药制造行业展望

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry as stable for the next 12 to 18 months [3] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in China is experiencing growth driven by economic stability, an aging population, and supportive macro and policy factors, leading to an acceleration in industry upgrades. The focus remains on "innovation" and "going global," with expectations for strong market demand in 2025 [5][22] - The overall credit quality of the industry is expected to remain stable, with potential marginal improvements in certain sub-sectors due to favorable conditions, although risks related to R&D innovation and competition must be monitored [6][23] Industry Fundamentals - The macroeconomic environment shows that China's GDP grew by 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, with healthcare expenditure increasing significantly, outpacing GDP growth. Total healthcare expenditure rose from 3.53 trillion yuan in 2014 to 9.06 trillion yuan in 2023, with an annual growth rate of approximately 11% [8][9] - The healthcare expenditure structure is shifting from personal cash payments to government and social spending, reducing the financial burden on individuals and enhancing the overall market scale of the pharmaceutical industry [8][9] Financial Performance - In 2023, the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector saw a slight decline in revenue and profitability, but a recovery is anticipated in 2024 as external policy impacts stabilize. The debt growth rate has slowed, and the overall debt servicing capacity remains strong [5][6] - The sales revenue of the pharmaceutical market reached 29.304 trillion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, indicating robust downstream demand [9] Sub-sector Trends - Chemical raw materials are expected to see a rebound in production and pricing, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in output in 2024 [24] - The chemical preparation sector is shifting focus towards innovative drugs, with a significant increase in the number of drug registrations and approvals in 2023, indicating a positive outlook for companies with strong R&D capabilities [26] - The biopharmaceutical sector is witnessing a surge in overseas licensing deals, with a total value of $52.57 billion in 2024, reflecting the growing international presence of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [28] - The medical device sector is experiencing rapid growth in exports, particularly in high-value consumables and diagnostic products, with a notable increase in procurement projects supporting domestic manufacturers [30][31] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is under pressure from intensified competition and price reductions, but there is a growing pipeline of innovative products that could enhance market positioning [35]