中国神华：产销量稳定提升，分红提升体现公司重视市值管理

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Shenhua (601088) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The report indicates that despite the pressure on performance due to falling coal prices, the company has shown stable growth in production and sales across all business segments. The forecast for the full-year net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is between 57-60 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.5% to an increase of 0.5% [1][3]. - The company has increased its minimum dividend payout ratio from 60% to 65%, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder returns and market value management [2]. - The report highlights that the company maintains a significant capital expenditure plan of 30-40 billion yuan for 2024, focusing on coal, power generation, and transportation sectors, which suggests a potential for growth in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 350.48 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.16%. The EBITDA is expected to be 110.90 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 58.45 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.08% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.94 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.06 [4][10]. Production and Sales - The company anticipates a total coal production of 327.1 million tons for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The total coal sales are expected to reach 459.3 million tons, up by 2.1% [1][3]. - The total electricity generation is projected at 22.32 billion kWh, with a growth of 5.2%, and total electricity sales are expected to be 21.03 billion kWh, also reflecting a growth of 5.3% [1]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Potential - The company plans to invest significantly in new coal mines and power generation projects, including the construction of new coal mines with a combined capacity of 16 million tons and additional power generation capacity of 1.2 million kilowatts [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that ongoing investments in the transportation sector, including railway and port expansions, will contribute to future revenue growth [3].