Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the Chinese power generation industry, with credit quality expected to remain unchanged over the next 12 to 18 months [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The overall electricity demand in China is projected to continue growing at a moderate pace, supported by infrastructure investment and economic stability policies [6][18]. - The power generation sector is experiencing a shift towards cleaner energy sources, with significant growth in renewable energy installations, particularly wind and solar [19][26]. - Financial performance across the industry is generally stable, with thermal power companies benefiting from lower fuel prices and capacity pricing policies, while wind and solar companies face challenges related to consumption limits and declining prices [4][6][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - Electricity consumption in China increased by 6.8% year-on-year in 2024, driven by economic growth and structural upgrades [8][10]. - The second industry remains the main driver of electricity demand, although its growth rate has slowed [10][12]. - The share of electricity consumption from the second industry was 64.83% in 2024, while the third industry's share increased to 18.62% [13]. Financial Performance - The total investment in power generation reached 1,168.7 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 12.1% year-on-year increase [21]. - The financial health of companies in the sector is improving, with thermal power companies seeing a recovery in profitability [6][19]. - The overall financial risk in the power generation industry is expected to remain manageable in 2025 [4][6]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the ongoing transition towards a cleaner energy structure, with non-fossil fuel sources expected to account for a growing share of installed capacity [19][26]. - The future of the power generation industry will be influenced by various factors, including coal prices, water availability, and the development of new energy systems [29][35].
中国电力生产行业展望，2025年1月
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji·2025-01-24 11:32