华金宏观·双循环周报（第92期）：关税疑云之下，人民币升值会否持续？

Trade Policy Impact - Trump's consideration of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada could significantly impact China's exports[2] - Anticipated "rush exports" may lead to a natural decline in exports post-December, with a potential decrease in 2025 exports due to preemptive actions taken by various industries[2] - Increased tariffs could raise prices of goods exported to the U.S., reducing export volumes despite a declining share of U.S. exports since 2018[2] Currency and Economic Outlook - The cautious approach of Trump regarding tariffs has led to a temporary appreciation of the RMB, with the USD index dropping from nearly 110 to around 107.5 as of January 24[8] - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike of 25 basis points has further alleviated upward pressure on the USD index[8] - China's monetary policy adjustments, including a slowdown in net bond purchases and maintaining interest rates, have contributed to the RMB's temporary recovery[10] Future Projections and Risks - The net export growth that contributed 1.5 percentage points to China's economic growth in 2024 faces significant uncertainty due to potential tariffs and trade barriers[12] - The RMB may face depreciation pressures if the USD index rebounds after the initial high inflation period in the U.S.[12] - The ultimate source of financial allocation is linked to household wealth management, which is directly related to the real estate cycle's stabilization[12]