Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.65, corresponding to a 12x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [4][15]. Core Insights - The main brand's turnover showed improvement in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% and a healthy inventory turnover of four months [4][11]. - Saucony's revenue is expected to exceed RMB 1 billion in 2024, with a 50% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 and a 60% increase for the entire year [4][12]. - The company is optimistic about its running product matrix and anticipates that Saucony's profitability will contribute to a second growth curve [4][15]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections indicate a growth from RMB 14,346 million in 2023 to RMB 18,331 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.64% [3][8]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 1,044 million in 2023 to RMB 1,564 million by 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 42.17% in 2023 to 43.25% in 2026 [3][8]. Brand Performance - The main brand achieved a completion rate of 22.4% in the Shanghai Marathon, surpassing international brands, while Saucony maintained a top-three position in wear rates [4][14]. - The company has opened new concept stores to enhance brand visibility and product offerings, including collaborations with designers and the introduction of new product lines [4][13]. Market Position - The report highlights the company's strong position in the marathon shoe market, with both the main brand and Saucony leading in wear rates at major marathons [4][14]. - The company is focusing on channel upgrades and product matrix expansion to sustain growth and enhance profitability [4][12][13].
特步国际：公司公告点评：24Q4主品牌流水回暖，索康尼全年收入规模有望破10亿