短期风险有限，可持股过节

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to experience a short-term uptrend after the Spring Festival, driven by policy easing, external events, and liquidity conditions [4][7] - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 11 out of 15 years within 10 trading days after the Spring Festival [4][7] - The report recommends holding stocks during the Spring Festival, as the risks are expected to be limited, and the market may strengthen post-holiday [4][11] Weekly Focus: Holding Stocks or Cash During Spring Festival - Post-Spring Festival market performance is heavily influenced by policies, external events, and liquidity conditions [4][7] - Policy easing and positive external events tend to strengthen the market, while tightening policies or negative events may weaken it [4][7] - Liquidity easing, such as central bank rate cuts, has historically led to stronger post-holiday market performance [4][7] Weekly Strategy: Potential Spring Market Rally - Economic and profit recovery trends are expected to continue, with consumer spending likely to rebound due to holiday travel and policy support [16][17] - Liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential further easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts [24][26] - Risk appetite is expected to rise post-holiday, with limited risks during the holiday period [32] Industry Allocation: Focus on Tech, Consumer, and Low-Valuation Sectors - High-growth sectors and those with seasonal effects, such as tech, consumer goods, and finance, tend to outperform before the Spring Festival [36][39] - Communication, agriculture, and automotive sectors have shown strong year-end profit growth, which may positively impact market performance [41][43] - Sectors with low export exposure to the US and high domestic reliance, such as communication and textiles, are less likely to be impacted by potential tariff increases [43][44] - Strategic high-tech industries, including semiconductors and medical devices, have seen increased domestic production rates, reducing their vulnerability to tariff shocks [44][48]