2025年煤炭行业年度策略：供需错配，再创辉煌

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, with a positive outlook for the coal sector [4]. Core Insights - The coal industry possesses both cyclical and dividend attributes, showing resilience in price adjustments and strong dividend yields [8]. - By the end of 2024, thermal coal prices are expected to rebound, with a price range forecasted between 850-900 RMB per ton for 2025 [8]. - The supply-demand gap for thermal coal is projected to narrow slightly in 2025 due to increased domestic electricity consumption and a decrease in imported coal [8]. - The coal industry is characterized by high dividends, high return on equity (ROE), and low price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Review - The coal industry has shown cyclical behavior over the past decade, with the coal index generally moving in tandem with coal prices [18]. - The coal index has demonstrated strong short-term adjustment capabilities despite a decline in company performance starting in Q2 2023 [26]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - The demand for thermal coal is primarily driven by electricity generation, which remains dominant despite rapid growth in renewable energy [44]. - The supply of thermal coal is expected to increase, particularly from Xinjiang and Shanxi, with total domestic production projected to reach 39.62 billion tons in 2025 [94]. - The demand for coking coal is influenced by the profitability of steel mills, with a forecasted total production of 4.75 billion tons in 2025 [94]. 3. Price Forecasts - Thermal coal prices are expected to stabilize around 850-900 RMB per ton in 2025, supported by supply constraints and rising demand from the power sector [124]. - Coking coal prices are anticipated to experience fluctuations, with potential recovery in the second half of 2025 as industrial confidence improves [124]. 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with elasticity in coking coal, such as Pingmei Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal, as well as high-dividend blue-chip stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [8].