英大证券：金点策略晨报-20250125

Core Views - The report indicates that favorable policies are expected to attract significant medium- to long-term capital into the A-share market, although the pace and strategy of this capital influx will still depend on market performance and macroeconomic conditions [2][8] - The A-share market is anticipated to shift from a speculative environment characterized by high volatility to a more stable trend focused on long-term value investment [2][8] Market Analysis - On the trading day analyzed, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a rise and subsequent fall, with a total of 2,334 A-shares rising and 2,795 falling. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,230.16 points, up 16.54 points (0.51%), with a trading volume of 539.80 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,176.17 points, down 49.70 points (0.49%), with a trading volume of 815.48 billion yuan [4][5] - The report highlights that the policy from six ministries aims to promote medium- to long-term capital entering the market, with specific measures including increasing the actual investment ratio and extending assessment periods for institutional investors [4][5][8] Policy Implications - The implementation plan requires public funds to increase their holdings of A-share market value by at least 10% annually over the next three years, which translates to an increase of at least 70 billion yuan in public fund holdings by 2025 [5][7] - Large state-owned insurance companies are expected to allocate 30% of their new premiums to A-share investments starting in 2025, potentially leading to an annual investment scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [5][7] Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic economic development is shifting from being driven by real estate to being supported by government investment and wealth-driven capital market prosperity, which is expected to enhance the overall economic resilience and stability of the A-share market [2][8] - If domestic enterprise investment and consumer sentiment improve by mid-2025, it could lead to a significant increase in medium- to long-term capital inflows, further stabilizing and revitalizing the A-share market [2][8]