BIDU(09888) 东吴证券·2025-01-25 00:21Investment Rating - Maintained "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888 HK) [1] Core Views - Baidu's AI progress is impressive, with Baidu Wenku and Baidu Netdisk showing significant growth in AI-related metrics [3] - Baidu Wenku's AI MAU reached 90 million in January 2024, with AI DAU growing 230% YoY [3] - Baidu Netdisk's AI DAU increased 90% YoY in January 2024, with AI-driven revenue growing 120% YoY [3] - Baidu's cloud business is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2025, driven by increasing demand for AI agent development and applications [10] - The company's advertising business is expected to improve quarter by quarter in 2025, supported by economic policies and AI product commercialization [10] Financial Forecasts - 2024Q4 revenue is expected to be 33 2 billion yuan, down 5% YoY [10] - 2024Q4 adjusted operating profit is forecasted at 4 5 billion yuan, with a 15 5% margin for Baidu Core [10] - 2024Q4 adjusted net profit is projected at 3 87 billion yuan [10] - 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been revised downward to 24 2/26 0/28 3 billion yuan [11] - 2025 Non-GAAP PE is estimated at 8 2x [11] AI Progress - Baidu Wenku has launched over 100 AI features, including intelligent PPT creation, AI writing assistant, and AI search [3] - Baidu Netdisk has integrated AI features such as scanning, doodling, voice transcription, and meeting minutes [3] - The "Free Canvas" feature, jointly developed by Baidu Wenku and Baidu Netdisk, is in public testing and expected to boost user engagement and monetization [3] Financial Metrics - 2024E revenue is projected at 132 2 billion yuan, with a 1 78% YoY decline [1] - 2025E revenue is forecasted at 135 1 billion yuan, with a 2 19% YoY growth [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 23 67 billion yuan, up 16 5% YoY [1] - 2025E net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 24 1 billion yuan, with a 1 82% YoY increase [1]