节前煤炭市场平稳运行，关注寒潮天气下去库力度

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is considered the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance of fundamentals and policies, making it a suitable time to accumulate positions in the coal sector [3][11] - The coal supply and demand dynamics are expected to show a dual decline as the Spring Festival approaches, with high inventory levels suggesting a stable market before and after the holiday [4][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a trend of coal prices establishing a new platform above 800 RMB/ton [4][11] - High-quality coal companies are characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields exceeding 5% [4][11] - The coal sector is viewed as undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market [4][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of January 24, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 756 RMB/ton, down 4 RMB/ton week-on-week [30] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 89.8 USD/ton, unchanged week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1490 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [33] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 90.8%, down 6.2 percentage points week-on-week [4][48] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 7.60 thousand tons/day, up 1.90% week-on-week [4][48] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 31.70 thousand tons/day, down 15.98% week-on-week [4][48] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performance companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant price elasticity such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12] - Consideration of high-quality metallurgical coal companies like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Group [12]