有色金属：海外季报：美铝 2024Q4 氧化铝产量环比减少 2%至 239 万吨，电解铝产量环比增加 2%至 57 万吨，归母净利润环比增长 124%至 2.02 亿美元

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [8] Core Insights - In Q4 2024, alumina production decreased by 2% to 2.39 million tons, while electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2% to 571,000 tons. The net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 124% to $202 million [2][14] - The report highlights a significant increase in third-party alumina sales revenue, which reached $1.467 billion in Q4 2024, a 46% increase quarter-on-quarter and an 88% increase year-on-year, driven by rising average realized prices and increased shipment volumes [12] - The overall company revenue for Q4 2024 increased by 20% to $3.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 34% [14] Summary by Sections Production and Operational Performance - In Q4 2024, bauxite production decreased by 1% to 9.3 million tons, and alumina production decreased by 2% to 2.39 million tons, with a year-on-year decline of 14% [4][6] - The average realized price for alumina increased by 31% quarter-on-quarter to $636 per ton, and by 85% year-on-year [4] - Electrolytic aluminum production for 2024 was 2.215 million tons, a 5% increase year-on-year, attributed to the recovery of production capacity at the Warrick and Alumar smelters [10][21] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the adjusted EBITDA for the alumina business was $716 million, reflecting a 95% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 752% increase year-on-year [12] - The adjusted EBITDA for the electrolytic aluminum business was $194 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 120% [13] - For the full year 2024, the company reported total revenue of $11.895 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with net income attributable to Alcoa of $60 million, compared to a net loss of $651 million in the previous year [21][30] Key Actions and Future Outlook - The company announced a memorandum of understanding regarding the San Ciprián complex, aiming to improve its long-term business prospects [24] - For 2025, the company expects alumina production to be between 9.5 to 9.7 million tons, reflecting a decrease due to the Kwinana alumina plant's production cuts [27] - The projected electrolytic aluminum production for 2025 is between 2.3 to 2.5 million tons, with expected shipments between 2.6 to 2.8 million tons [27]