CHALCO(601600) 国盛证券·2025-01-25 23:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12-13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 79%-94%, potentially reaching a record high since its establishment [1][2] - The significant increase in profits is attributed to the rapid rise in alumina prices and refined cost control measures [1][2] - The company is advancing its incremental projects steadily, reinforcing its leading position in the aluminum industry [3] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2024 is 12.2 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 81.7% year-on-year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated to be between 0.71 and 0.76 yuan, reflecting an increase of 82%-97% year-on-year [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be approximately 221.9 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.4% year-on-year [5] Market Dynamics - The average price of alumina in Q4 2024 is reported to be 5316 yuan per ton, a 35% increase from the previous quarter, significantly boosting the company's quarterly performance [2] - The report anticipates that the supply-demand tension in alumina will ease in 2025, leading to a gradual profit shift towards electrolytic aluminum [4] Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its alumina production capacity with the Guangxi Huasheng Phase II project, expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, increasing its alumina capacity to 24.26 million tons [3] - The electrolytic aluminum capacity is also set to increase with new projects in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai, contributing to a total annual capacity of 7.73 million tons [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.7, 10.8, and 8.3 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][5]