李子园：品牌焕新渠道求变，静待成效显现

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Li Ziyuan [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the main concerns regarding the company stem from its product singularity and outdated sales channels. However, it emphasizes positive changes in product, channel, and brand strategies that could enhance growth potential [9][17]. - The company has a strong market position in the sweet milk segment, with sales exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2023 and a market share of approximately 10% in the neutral dairy beverage market [19][31]. - The overall dairy beverage market in China is projected to grow, with a market size of approximately 1,414.6 billion yuan in 2023 and a CAGR of 4.5% expected from 2023 to 2026 [31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report outlines the company's historical development and recent positive changes in product, channel, and brand strategies, suggesting potential for upward movement in a market with low concentration [17]. 2. Company Overview - Li Ziyuan has been a leader in the sweet milk industry since its establishment in 1994, with a strong brand presence and a diverse product line including various dairy beverages [19][21]. - The company's ownership structure is stable, with the founders holding approximately 60% of the shares, which supports efficient management and long-term strategic planning [21][23]. 3. Dairy Beverage Market Analysis - The dairy beverage market is substantial, with a size exceeding 1,400 billion yuan in 2023, and the segment is characterized by a mix of nutritional and flavorful products [31][32]. - The market concentration is relatively high, with the top five companies holding a CR5 of 54.51%, indicating room for Li Ziyuan to increase its market share [34][41]. 4. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively diversifying its sales channels and enhancing brand appeal through targeted marketing strategies aimed at younger consumers [9][18]. - Li Ziyuan is focusing on core markets with growth potential, particularly in mature and semi-mature markets, while optimizing its channel management to improve efficiency [18][19]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 14.1 billion yuan, 15.6 billion yuan, and 17.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.3 billion yuan, 2.6 billion yuan, and 2.9 billion yuan [1][9].