煤炭行业周报：政策再加码，持续关注红利投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a price decline due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a short-term expectation of price stabilization supported by winter storage needs and resilient non-electric demand [6][8] - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in coal prices in 2025, driven by limited production growth and economic recovery [6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - Price Analysis: As of January 24, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 753 CNY/ton, down 5 CNY/ton (-0.66%) from the previous week [14][20] - Supply and Demand: The railway inflow to Qinhuangdao port increased by 28.73% to 457,000 tons, while port throughput decreased by 23.74% to 347,000 tons [35][36] - Inventory Analysis: Qinhuangdao's coal inventory rose by 1.55% to 6.57 million tons, while key power plant inventories fell by 1.86% [45][48] - International Market: The Newcastle FOB thermal coal price is 80.25 USD/ton, down 0.31%, while the IPE Rotterdam coal price increased by 2.38% to 109.5 USD/ton [52][54] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.93% compared to a 0.33% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [57][59] 3. Recent Important Events - Industry News: The report notes a significant increase in U.S. coal production, with a 29.45% year-on-year growth [64] - Company Announcements: China Shenhua expects a net profit of 57 to 60 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a slight decline due to lower average coal prices [65][66]