商贸社服行业周专题0124：春节旅游数据前瞻，迎首个非遗春节，国内游、跨境游预订两旺

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail trade industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism regarding the upcoming Spring Festival tourism data, highlighting the growth in domestic cultural tourism, ice and snow tourism, and winter escape tourism. It also notes a significant increase in inbound tourism, suggesting that volume will continue to be a key driver of growth [4][11][22] Summary by Sections Spring Festival Travel Data Outlook - The total number of cross-regional travelers during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, potentially setting a historical record [12][22] - Average prices for air tickets and hotels for outbound travel are projected to decline compared to last year [15][24] - The travel pattern is characterized as "segmented," with an increase in family travel, particularly for parent-child trips, which are expected to account for 49% of travel orders [16][23] Travel Booking Performance - Domestic travel themes include cultural tourism, ice and snow tourism, and winter escape tourism, with long-distance travel dominating the market [17][23] - Inbound tourism shows high growth, with orders for inbound travel increasing by 203% year-on-year, particularly from South Korea, which saw a 452% increase [21][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the Spring Festival tourism boom, particularly in the OTA sector, recommending companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, as well as scenic spots like Jiuhua Tourism and Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism [26][27] - It identifies four main investment themes: domestic consumption, cross-border e-commerce, recovery in the restaurant and traditional retail sectors, and cyclical recovery in human resources and hotel industries [28][30]