医药生物行业定期报告：公募Q4进一步低配医药，药基和非药基分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [7] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a further decline in fund holdings, with public fund heavy positions at 8.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a significant underweight [4][5] - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: innovation, recovery, and policy support, suggesting that the pharmaceutical sector may see excess returns in 2025 [5][15] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy and Recommended Stocks - The report suggests gradually increasing allocations to the pharmaceutical sector, anticipating excess returns in 2025 due to key policies such as the comprehensive promotion of DRG/DIP and expected adjustments to the essential drug list [15] - Recommended stocks for January include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Union Medical, Ao Sai Kang, and others [6] 2. Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q4 2024, the pharmaceutical heavy position of all public funds was 8.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, while the non-pharmaceutical heavy position was only 4.0%, indicating a severe underweight [4][23] - Different fund types show varying holdings in sectors, with pharmaceutical funds overweighting innovative drugs, chemical drugs, and CXO, while non-pharmaceutical funds favor medical devices and CXO [28] 3. Market Review and Short-term Investment Thoughts - The report notes that the A-share pharmaceutical sector underperformed the index by 0.3 percentage points, while H-shares outperformed, indicating a stabilization in the pharmaceutical sector [5] - Key events include discussions on low-priced drugs and the expectation of a rebound in sentiment for the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on innovative drugs and strong performance companies as potential investment opportunities [5] 4. Long-term Investment Themes - The report highlights three long-term themes: innovation in pharmaceuticals and medical devices, recovery in medical equipment, and supportive policies for high-dividend companies [5][15] - The aging population and the push for cost-effectiveness in healthcare are driving trends towards domestic substitutes and innovative drug development [15]