Wondershare(300624) 国金证券·2025-01-26 01:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company expects a loss of 140 to 180 million RMB for FY 2024, a shift from a profit of approximately 9 million RMB in FY 2023, primarily due to increased AI investments that have not yet yielded returns, higher marketing expenses, goodwill impairment from a subsidiary, and fair value losses from an associate company [1] - The temporary suspension of the international version of Capcut has led to a significant increase in downloads and revenue for the company's video editing software Filmora, with a revenue growth of 393.6% during the period [2][3] - The report suggests that while Filmora's revenue surge may not be sustainable once Capcut resumes full service, the migration of users could lead to a long-term shift in market share, especially given Filmora's lower subscription cost compared to Capcut [3] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.482 billion RMB, 1.700 billion RMB, and 1.907 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be -156 million RMB, 57 million RMB, and 117 million RMB [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be -0.809 RMB for 2024, 0.297 RMB for 2025, and 0.606 RMB for 2026 [4] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is approximately 9.0 for 2024, 7.8 for 2025, and 7.0 for 2026 [4] - The report indicates a significant increase in the company's revenue and profit projections over the next three years, reflecting a recovery trajectory post-2024 [4] Market Analysis - The report highlights a shift in user engagement from Capcut to Filmora due to Capcut's temporary service suspension, indicating a potential for Filmora to capture a larger market share in the video editing space [2][3] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with increased demand for AI features in video editing, which Filmora is positioned to meet [3]