华熙生物：转型阵痛期，预计25年护肤板块触底

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation period, with expectations that the skincare segment will bottom out in 2025. The management is implementing structural changes and strategic investments to enhance long-term growth potential despite short-term performance pressures [5][7][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,076 million, with a year-on-year decline of 4.5%. For 2024, the expected revenue is 5,458 million, reflecting a further decline of 10.2%. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2025 with revenue projected at 5,750 million, representing a growth of 5.3% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 593 million, with a significant drop to 162 million in 2024, a decrease of 72.7%. A rebound is expected in 2025 with a forecasted profit of 451 million, marking a growth of 179.1% [6][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 73.3% in 2023 to 75.1% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6]. Management Changes and Strategic Investments - The company is committed to management reforms, which include organizational restructuring and a new compensation system, leading to short-term cost increases exceeding 70 million. These changes are aimed at laying a solid foundation for long-term development [5]. - Significant investments exceeding 200 million are being made in supply chain upgrades and innovative business areas such as regenerative medicine and functional foods, which are expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the long run [5][8]. Market Performance and Comparisons - The company's stock closed at 49.24 yuan on January 24, 2025, with a market capitalization of 23,718 million. The stock has seen a yearly high of 84.59 yuan and a low of 44.72 yuan [1]. - The company’s performance is being compared against the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index, with the stock's performance being closely monitored in relation to these benchmarks [1][2].