有色金属行业专题报告：氧化铝拐点或来临，电解铝开启长周期叙事

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the alumina price may reach a turning point, and the electrolytic aluminum sector is entering a long-cycle narrative [5] - The supply of bauxite is concentrated, leading to increased disturbances in the market [4] - The supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is shifting from surplus to shortage, indicating a potential price increase [5] Summary by Sections 1. Aluminum Industry Chain Overview - The aluminum industry chain consists of upstream resources and raw materials, electrolytic aluminum, primary processing, and end applications [9] 2. Bauxite: Supply Concentration and Increased Disturbances - Global bauxite reserves are estimated at 2.783 billion tons, with Guinea, Australia, and Brazil holding 58.2% of the total [20] - In 2023, global bauxite production reached 400 million tons, with Australia, Guinea, and China accounting for 72.0% of the total output [21] - China's bauxite supply is highly dependent on imports, with 68% of its supply coming from abroad, primarily from Guinea and Australia [28] - The report notes that disturbances in supply due to environmental and political factors are increasing, which may lead to rising prices [38] 3. Alumina: Price Turning Point Approaching - The report anticipates a 12.8% increase in alumina production capacity by 2025, with an effective output of approximately 5.45 million tons [53] - The alumina market has shown signs of easing shortages since November 2024, suggesting a potential price turning point [54] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum: Supply Rigidity Becomes Consensus - The report indicates that the electrolytic aluminum sector is reaching a production capacity ceiling, with a total capacity of 45.71 million tons and an operating capacity of 43.53 million tons [61] - The projected demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, driven by sectors such as real estate, transportation, and power electronics [65] - The supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is projected to shift from surplus to shortage in the coming years, with expected balances of 171, 53, and -39 thousand tons from 2024 to 2026 [70] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the electrolytic aluminum sector, particularly companies with low alumina self-sufficiency and significant electrolytic aluminum production growth, such as Yun Aluminum Co., Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [82]