煤炭月度供需数据点评：12月供给持续回升，制造业投资延续高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Synchronize with the market" rating for the coal industry [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The coal supply for 2024 is expected to see a slight increase compared to 2023, with a total production of 4.759 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.30% [11]. - Manufacturing investment has shown high growth, with fixed asset investment increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, while real estate investment has decreased by 10.6% [12][15]. - Coal prices, including thermal coal and coking coal, are under pressure, with significant year-on-year declines noted [20]. Supply and Demand Summary - Supply Side: The total coal supply for 2024 is projected to be slightly higher than in 2023, with December production reaching 439 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.20% [11][28]. - Demand Side: Manufacturing investment remains strong, but downstream demand is under pressure, with thermal power generation growth at 1.50%, down 4.59 percentage points from the previous year [15][28]. - Import Data: Coal imports for 2024 are expected to total 54.27 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.40%, although the growth rate has slowed [18]. Price Performance Summary - The average price of Shanxi mixed 5500 thermal coal for 2024 is projected at 862 RMB/ton, down 11.9% year-on-year [20]. - The average price of coking coal at Jingtang Port is expected to be 1,978 RMB/ton, a decrease of 12.6% compared to 2023 [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy for stable returns [29]. - It also highlights companies with high elasticity and dividend potential, including Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining, and Yanzhou Coal [29].