美国经济分析：关税与报复关税风险（摘要）

Tariff Policy and Expectations - The Trump administration's tariff policy is expected to increase rates on autos and imports from China, with a 70% probability for the latter[2] - Revised tariff assumptions indicate potential increases from 25% to 60% on certain Chinese imports, affecting approximately $34 billion[3] Retaliation Risks - Historical data suggests that retaliatory tariffs from trading partners could mirror previous responses, targeting similar products[4] - Retaliatory tariffs led to a 20% decline in US exports to countries imposing such tariffs, following an average tariff rate increase of 15 percentage points[20] Economic Impact - Retaliatory tariffs significantly impacted US exports of homogeneous goods, with declines of 30-60% for agricultural and natural resource products[26] - The S&P 500 index fell by 7% on days when foreign countries announced retaliatory tariffs, compounding a 5% decline on US tariff announcement days[30] Targeted Products - Key sectors likely to be targeted by foreign retaliation include autos, agricultural products, and raw materials, which were heavily affected in the last trade war[37] - China may impose additional measures beyond tariffs, such as export controls on critical materials that are difficult to source elsewhere[53]