证券Ⅱ行业月度点评：资本市场有望稳步向好，业绩回暖带来配置机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "In line with the market" [2][24] Core Viewpoints - The capital market is expected to develop steadily in 2025, supported by both domestic and external factors, with a focus on stabilizing the market and comprehensive reforms in investment and financing [8][22] - The report highlights the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, with several significant transactions already approved by the regulatory authorities [8][24] - The report suggests that the performance of the securities industry is likely to improve in 2024, driven by a recovery in market activity and investor confidence [8][24] Market Performance Review - In December, the securities industry underperformed the market, with the Shenwan Securities Index declining by 4.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76% [9][10] - The average daily trading volume in the two markets decreased by 18% month-on-month in December, indicating a decline in market enthusiasm [14] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for listed securities firms decreased to 1.31 times as of January 20, down from 1.46 times at the end of November [12][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality leading securities firms, mergers and acquisitions, and firms with strong earnings elasticity [24] - Specific firms to watch include CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities for their robust operational stability and capital strength [24] - The report also suggests monitoring firms involved in mergers and acquisitions, such as Guolian Securities and Zheshang Securities [24] Industry Developments - The report notes that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized the importance of stabilizing the market and accelerating reforms in its recent meetings [22][44] - Several major mergers, including the acquisition of Guodu Securities by Zheshang Securities and the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, have been approved [8][24][37] - The report highlights the increasing participation of foreign securities firms in the Chinese market, which is expected to enhance capital liquidity and promote supply-side reforms [22][24]