2024年财政数据点评：有限的财政空间如何腾挪

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In 2024, the national general public budget revenue increased by 1.3%, while expenditure grew by 3.6%[1] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 12.2%, with expenditure rising by 0.2%[1] Non-Tax Revenue Analysis - In December 2024, public fiscal revenue saw a month-on-month increase of 24.25%, primarily driven by a 93.8% increase in non-tax revenue, contributing 22.2 percentage points to overall revenue growth[6] - Central fiscal revenue in December rose by 40.4%, contributing 19.1 percentage points to public fiscal revenue, while local fiscal revenue increased by 9.8%, contributing 5.2 percentage points[7] Fiscal Space and Spending Dynamics - December public fiscal expenditure grew by 9.6%, with local government expenditure contributing 10.1 percentage points, while central government expenditure had a negative contribution of -0.6 percentage points[14] - The actual fiscal deficit for 2024 was 3.37 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding the budget, primarily covered by fund transfers and surplus carryovers[14] Constraints on Broader Fiscal Policy - The total revenue from state-owned land use rights in December saw a reduced decline of 16%, narrowing by 6.4 percentage points compared to the previous 11 months, supporting a slight recovery in government fund expenditure[22] - In 2024, broad fiscal expenditure growth was only 2.7%, significantly below the budgeted 7.9%, resulting in an absolute shortfall of 1.96 trillion yuan[22]