美国经济日评：围绕关税的措辞较为温和

Group 1: Tariff Policy Overview - Trump's tariff policy announced on inauguration day is milder than expected, indicating lower priority for broad tariffs than previously anticipated[1] - The likelihood of imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico is assessed at 20%, reflecting a lower probability than earlier predictions[1] - The probability of imposing approximately 20 percentage points of tariffs on imports from China has been reduced from 90% to 70%, but remains a basic scenario[1] Group 2: Specific Tariff Predictions - The likelihood of implementing universal tariffs this year has been lowered to 25%, with expectations that any such tariffs would target "critical imports" accounting for 10-20% of total U.S. imports[1] - The probability of tariffs on EU automobiles is estimated at 55%, while the overall chance of tariffs on all imports is set at 25%[3] - The potential final tariff amounts for China include a 25% tariff on lists 1-2 (totaling $34 billion) and a 10$116 billion)[3] Group 3: Implementation Timeline and Risks - The trade policy memorandum requires assessments to be submitted by April 1, suggesting that any new tariffs may be implemented in the second quarter, though risks lean towards a later implementation[1] - Trump's previous commitments regarding tariffs on Mexico and Canada have not been fulfilled, indicating uncertainty in future tariff actions[1] - The memorandum reflects a consideration of various legal authorities for imposing tariffs, including Section 301 and Section 232, but consensus on specific actions has not yet been reached[4]