行业研究——周报：大炼化周报：成本重心下移，部分化工品价差扩大

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" based on the performance of the industry index relative to the benchmark [103] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the cost pressure in the refining sector is easing, leading to an expansion in price differentials for certain chemical products [1][2] - Brent crude oil prices have shown a decline, with the average price at $79.36 per barrel as of January 24, 2025, reflecting a 2.03% decrease week-on-week [1][2] - The report notes that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has stabilized, reducing supply disruption risks, which has contributed to the decline in international oil prices [1][10] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - As of January 24, 2025, the domestic key refining project price differential is 2486.79 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 13.86 CNY/ton (0.56%) [1][2] - Internationally, the key refining project price differential is 928.05 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 7.39 CNY/ton (0.80%) [1][2] - The report indicates that the domestic and international refined oil prices have generally declined, with domestic diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7398.00 CNY/ton, 8897.71 CNY/ton, and 6346.14 CNY/ton respectively [10] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is experiencing weak cost support, leading to a downward shift in polyethylene prices, while some products see price increases due to supply support [1][34] - Polypropylene prices are fluctuating, with a slight widening of price differentials [1][34] - The report mentions that MMA prices have slightly decreased, while pure benzene prices have increased due to inventory reduction [1][39][40] Polyester Sector - The report notes that the polyester downstream manufacturers are entering a holiday mode, leading to a continuous decline in demand [1][63] - PX prices are weakly declining due to increased supply from a recently restarted PX facility in South China [1][63] - PTA prices are also slightly down, with the industry average net profit per ton at -171.58 CNY/ton [1][68] Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of January 24, 2025, the stock performance of six major refining companies shows varied results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down 3.79% and Hengli Petrochemical down 1.20% over the past week [1][87] - Over the past month, Hengli Petrochemical has seen a slight increase of 2.51%, while other companies like Oriental Rainbow and Xinfengming have experienced declines [1][87]