有色金属行业大宗金属周报：铜价宽幅震荡等待FOMC催化，电解铝盈利持续走阔

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Copper prices are experiencing wide fluctuations, driven by macroeconomic factors, with a slight decline this week from 76,500 CNY/ton to 75,900 CNY/ton. The market is awaiting the upcoming FOMC meeting for potential catalysts. Demand remains weak as the Chinese New Year approaches, leading to a decrease in operating rates for copper rods [6][23]. - The aluminum sector is seeing a recovery in profitability as alumina prices drop significantly, with a 12.16% decrease this week. The outlook suggests a potential shortage in electrolytic aluminum this year, indicating upward price potential [6][28]. - Lithium prices are stabilizing with a slight increase of 0.06% to 77,900 CNY/ton, but the supply and demand dynamics remain weak. The market is advised to monitor production rates in March and April to assess demand sustainability [6][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic factors are influencing the non-ferrous metals market, particularly with the inauguration of President Trump and his focus on inflation and energy prices [13]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has been underwhelming, with the sector index down 0.91% this week, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index [16][17]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - This week, London copper prices increased by 0.96%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.88%. The copper smelting profit margin is currently negative at -1,465 CNY/ton, indicating a widening loss [21][23]. Aluminum - Both London and Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 0.81%. The aluminum industry is benefiting from improved profit margins due to falling alumina prices, which have decreased by 12.16% [28]. Lead and Zinc - Lead prices saw a slight decline, while zinc prices dropped by 1.88%. The smelting processing fee for zinc increased by 9.30% to 2,350 CNY/ton, with mining profits down to 9,578 CNY/ton [36]. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased by 2.29% in London, while nickel prices fell. Domestic nickel iron enterprises reported profits of 6,914 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase [40]. 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium prices are showing slight increases, with lithium carbonate at 77,900 CNY/ton. The profit margin for lithium extraction from spodumene has decreased by 19.97% [48]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices remain stable, with domestic cobalt prices holding at 163,000 CNY/ton. The profit margin for domestic smelting plants has increased to 44,900 CNY/ton [52].