周观点：浆价持续反弹，浆纸一体企业受益；出口链业绩表现靓丽

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights a continuous rebound in pulp prices, benefiting integrated pulp and paper companies, with notable performance in export chains [2] - The report suggests that the paper industry is experiencing a mild recovery in pulp prices, driven by low inventory levels and recovering overseas demand [2] - The report emphasizes the optimistic outlook for companies with strong overseas layouts and those with resilient earnings [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - In Q4, Sofia's median revenue was 3.427 billion yuan (down 1.1% year-on-year), with a net profit of 204 million yuan (down 10.7% year-on-year). The company is expected to see positive revenue growth in January 2025 [2] - Qu Mei Home achieved a net profit of 5 million yuan in Q4, turning a profit after a slight decline in overall revenue for 2024. The company is expected to improve profitability significantly in 2025 [2] Paper Industry - Pulp prices are experiencing a mild recovery, with Suzano announcing price increases of $20 in Asia and $60 in Europe and the US starting February 2025. The report suggests that integrated pulp and paper companies will benefit from this trend [2] - The report notes that paper mills are maintaining a firm market stance, with expectations of new price increases post-Chinese New Year [2] Exports - The report discusses the potential impact of the "Restoring Trade Fairness Act," which proposes tariffs on imports from China. Despite this, the long-term export outlook remains positive, with strong performance expected in Q4 2024 and optimistic order forecasts for 2025 [2] - Companies with robust overseas layouts are recommended for investment, including Yongyi Co., Jiangxin Home, and others [2] Consumer Goods - Baiya's Q4 revenue was 930 million yuan (up 39.2% year-on-year), with a net profit of 47 million yuan (down 16.5% year-on-year). The company is expected to continue strong growth in 2025 [2] - Runben's Q4 net profit was 44 million yuan (down 2.6% year-on-year), with expectations of continued growth driven by new product launches [2] New Tobacco - PMI's white paper highlights the challenges faced by new tobacco innovations, with a significant user base of 36.5 million globally. The report anticipates that core suppliers in this sector will benefit from ongoing market expansion [2] Packaging - Aorijin's stake in COFCO has reached 98.59%, meeting privatization conditions. The report expects steady operational improvement for Yongxin in Q4 2024, with double-digit revenue growth anticipated [2]