工业金属2025年度策略报告：基本面偏紧预期不变，铜铝上涨可期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a tight supply-demand balance remains unchanged, with potential price increases for copper and aluminum [4] - Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, with a forecasted deficit of -35.8/-31.3/-21.1 thousand tons for 2024-2026 [34] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints as production capacity approaches its ceiling [5] Summary by Sections Copper - Supply-demand tightness is expected to keep copper prices on the upside, with a focus on macroeconomic factors that could enhance price elasticity [34] - The copper concentrate TC/RC for 2025 is set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound, down 73.4% from the 2024 benchmark [34] - Global refined copper production is projected to be 2,685 million tons in 2024, with a slight decrease in growth due to mining disruptions [29][30] - Demand from the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors is expected to drive marginal increases in copper consumption [31] Aluminum - The operational capacity for electrolytic aluminum is nearing its production ceiling, leading to expected price increases due to supply constraints [5] - The average loss in the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry is projected at 1,352.4 yuan per ton, a significant drop of 828.86% from the previous month [70] - The price of alumina has surged, pushing up the cost of electrolytic aluminum, with a year-on-year increase of over 80% in 2024 [62] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Jincheng Mining, with a focus on Wanguo International Resources [5][35] - For aluminum, recommended stocks include Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo, with attention to Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Nanshan Aluminum [5]