行业研究——周报：原油周报：原油市场仍在观望特朗普政策影响

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The current oil price cycle is fundamentally supply-driven, with some oil-producing countries shifting from market share competition to price support strategies. The U.S. is facing production capacity bottlenecks, while OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia, can exert significant influence on oil prices through production adjustments [6][7] - The report anticipates that global oil demand will continue to grow in the medium to long term, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance, which supports higher oil prices [6][7] Oil Price Review - As of January 24, 2025, Brent crude oil settled at $77.55 per barrel, down $3.24 (-4.01%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil settled at $74.66 per barrel, down $2.73 (-3.53%) [5][24] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions and U.S. energy policies under President Trump are influencing market dynamics, with a focus on potential tariffs affecting energy demand [5][6] Supply and Demand Analysis - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.48 million barrels per day as of January 17, 2025, with active drilling rigs decreasing to 472 [34] - U.S. refinery crude processing capacity was 15.52 million barrels per day, down 1.125 million barrels from the previous week, with a utilization rate of 85.90% [38] - The report highlights that U.S. crude oil inventories totaled 806 million barrels, with a slight decrease of 768,000 barrels (-0.10%) [44] Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 20, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 377, a decrease of 2 rigs, primarily due to a reduction in North America [30] Product Oil Market - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were reported as $106.31, $87.06, and $101.26 per barrel, respectively, with slight variations from the previous week [56] - The report indicates that U.S. gasoline and diesel production has seen recent declines, with gasoline production at 923.7 thousand barrels per day, down 0.46% [66] Stock Performance - As of January 24, 2025, the oil and petrochemical sector saw a decline of 3.17%, while the broader market (CSI 300) increased by 0.54% [9][10]