财政数据点评（2024.12）：财政：2024三大特征，2025三大方向

Fiscal Policy Outlook - In 2025, fiscal policy is expected to become the primary proactive policy source, with a focus on boosting domestic consumption through a planned allocation of 500 billion yuan from special bonds for high-intensity consumption subsidies[1] - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected to have limited increases, with a significant rise in the deficit ratio expected to reach 3.6%-4.0% due to a large fiscal revenue gap and declining land transfer fees[1] - Special bonds are anticipated to expand to 4.2 trillion yuan, with approximately 800 billion yuan earmarked for affordable housing and recovering idle land, aiming to stabilize the real estate market[1] Fiscal Revenue Insights - In December, general public budget revenue reached 2.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.3%, driven primarily by a 93.8% increase in non-tax revenue, contributing 22.2 percentage points to the monthly growth[2] - Tax revenue's contribution to fiscal income growth slightly decreased to 2.0 percentage points, with consumption subsidies positively impacting VAT, corporate income tax, and consumption tax, which collectively contributed 6.3 percentage points to the monthly revenue[2] - Land transfer revenue for the year ended at 4.87 trillion yuan, marking a 16% decline, while government fund income rebounded by 19.8% in December, indicating a recovery in land sales activity[2] Expenditure and Debt Management - December's general public budget expenditure rose by 5.8% year-on-year, supporting a cumulative annual growth rate of 3.6%, close to the 2024 fiscal expenditure target[2] - Regular expenditures, particularly in education, social security, and health, contributed significantly to the monthly expenditure growth, while investment-related spending remained stable[2] - The execution of debt replacement has been decisive, alleviating corporate debt burdens, but improvements in fiscal and economic cycles are expected to take time[2]