银行业周报（20250120-20250126）：中长期资金入市，有利支撑低波红利的银行股

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for medium to long-term investments in bank stocks due to the influx of long-term capital into the market [1][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the entry of medium to long-term capital into the market will support bank stocks with low volatility and high dividends. This is a continuation of policy measures aimed at stabilizing the stock market, particularly following the implementation of a plan by six ministries to facilitate the entry of long-term funds [5][6]. - The report highlights the expected increase in long-term capital investment in A-shares, estimating that insurance funds could add between 400 billion to 500 billion yuan in 2025 [5][6]. - The banking sector is seen as a favorable investment target due to its stable high dividend characteristics, which are attractive to long-term investors like social security funds [5][6]. Industry Overview - The banking sector consists of 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, representing 13.04% of the overall market [2]. - The report notes that the banking index has shown a slight increase of 0.04% over the week, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [5][6]. Market Performance - The report provides a comparative performance analysis, showing that the banking sector has achieved an absolute performance of 5.0% over the past month and 17.7% over the past year, while relative performance has been 2.8% and 24.4% respectively [3][5]. - Specific banks such as Changsha Bank and China Everbright Bank have shown significant weekly gains of 7.39% and 7.15% respectively, while Suzhou Bank has experienced a decline of 3.46% [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, recommending state-owned banks and high-quality regional banks like Jiangsu Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [5][6]. - It also highlights banks with a high proportion of retail assets, such as China Merchants Bank and Postal Savings Bank, as having greater potential for valuation recovery in the context of economic recovery [5][6]. - Additionally, the report identifies regional banks like Chongqing Bank and Changsha Bank as beneficiaries of local economic development and debt restructuring, suggesting they are worth monitoring [5][6]. Key Company Analysis - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key banks, with recommendations for several banks based on their projected earnings growth and current valuations. For instance, Ningbo Bank is projected to have a net profit growth of 5.9% in 2024, with a target price of 29.96 yuan [7][22]. - Other banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Changshu Bank are also highlighted for their strong growth potential and favorable market conditions, with target prices set at 10.22 yuan and 8.00 yuan respectively [7][22].