策略专题报告：资本市场“压舱石”，中长期资金加速入市有何影响？

Market Overview - China's long-term funds, including pension and insurance funds, have a stock investment ratio below 15%, significantly lower than the regulatory caps of 40% for social security funds and 45% for insurance funds[1] - As of 2023, the total market value held by social security funds reached 408.1 billion CNY, accounting for only 13.54% of total assets and 26.60% of trading financial assets[1] Investment Behavior - The low willingness of long-term funds to enter the market is attributed to high market volatility and a strong "capital preservation" demand, leading to conservative investment in high-risk assets like stocks[2] - The average annual investment return for social security funds was 7.36% in 2023, with total earnings reaching 1.68 trillion CNY[1] International Comparison - Compared to developed countries, China's long-term funds are less diversified, with U.S. pension funds utilizing various derivatives and alternative investments, while Japan's GPIF allocates nearly 50% to equity assets[3] Policy Implications - New policies aim to increase long-term capital inflow, with public funds required to grow their A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years[4] - The plan encourages insurance companies to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares starting in 2025, potentially adding significant capital to the market[4] Future Outlook - The investment scope for long-term funds is expected to expand, with potential new channels for overseas investments and a focus on high-quality development in A-share governance[5] - The anticipated increase in long-term capital is expected to stabilize market volatility and enhance investor confidence, creating a positive feedback loop for market participation[4]