轻工制造行业定期报告：出口12月部分品类景气延续，内需看好国补催化

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company "居然智家" (Juran Smart Home) based on its leading operational efficiency and innovative model [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the export growth for certain categories such as thermos cups, pet snacks, pet mats, and inflatable mattresses remains strong in December, with companies like 浙江自然 (Zhejiang Natural), 嘉益股份 (Jiayi Co.), and 匠心家居 (Craft Home) expected to report high growth in their 2024 performance [2][7]. - Domestic demand is expected to improve due to national subsidies, particularly benefiting the home furnishing and consumer electronics packaging sectors [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the "抢出口" (rush for exports) effect in the first quarter, driven by tariff expectations [2][7]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - December retail sales for furniture showed a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, while furniture exports rose by 3.1% [34][36]. - The report notes a recovery in the housing market, with a marginal improvement in real estate sales and expectations for continued growth in the home furnishing sector due to new national subsidy policies [4][34]. Paper and Packaging - As of January 24, 2025, paper prices remained stable, with double glue paper at 5412.5 CNY/ton and copper plate paper at 5530 CNY/ton [44]. - The report indicates a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in revenue for the paper and paper products industry from January to November 2024 [54]. Consumer Electronics - The inclusion of consumer electronics in national subsidy programs is expected to stimulate demand for upgrades [7]. - The report recommends关注裕同科技 (Yutong Technology) as a leading player in consumer electronics packaging benefiting from these policies [7]. New Tobacco Products - The report discusses the regulatory trends in the U.S. regarding electronic cigarettes, emphasizing compliance and harm reduction as key focus areas [7]. - It suggests关注思摩尔国际 (Smoore International) for its strong collaboration with major clients and potential for stable profit growth [7]. Cultural and Entertainment Products - The cultural and entertainment products sector saw a year-on-year retail sales increase of 16.7% in December [87]. - The report notes that the revenue growth for the cultural, artistic, sports, and entertainment products industry was 3.7% from January to November 2024 [87].