宏观策略周报：市场指数或震荡走强，关注科技成长方向

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally after the Chinese New Year, driven by factors such as low valuations and the return of capital to the market [5][14][22] - As of January 25, 2025, the market valuation for the entire A-share market is at a price-to-book ratio of 1.54, which is below the historical average of 85.29% over the past decade [5][14] - The report highlights that the technology sector, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence and robotics, is anticipated to be a key growth driver for the market in 2025 and beyond [22][16] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent performance of the A-share market has shown signs of stabilization, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.33% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.64% during the week of January 20-24 [7][14] - It emphasizes the importance of policy support for domestic demand expansion, with the central economic work conference prioritizing this as a key task for 2025 [22][17] - The report also mentions that the recent implementation of subsidies for digital products is expected to benefit sectors such as consumer electronics and home appliances [22][17] Group 3 - The report discusses the expected recovery in the export industry, particularly in machinery, home appliances, and textiles, due to lower-than-expected tariff policy impacts from the U.S. [22][16] - It identifies undervalued small-cap stocks as having potential for valuation recovery as earnings forecasts for 2024 approach completion [22][16] - The report highlights the favorable conditions for the precious metals sector, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased gold purchases by the People's Bank of China [23][22]