中国融资租赁行业展望，2025年1月

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the financing leasing industry, indicating that the overall credit quality will not undergo significant changes in the next 12-18 months [5]. Core Insights - The financing leasing industry in China is experiencing a tightening regulatory environment, leading to a slowdown in overall development and the exit of some leasing companies from the market. However, medium and large leasing companies are showing stable financial performance [5][18]. - The newly released "Financial Leasing Company Management Measures" aims to enhance industry safety through stricter shareholder responsibilities and higher entry thresholds, while guiding leasing companies towards business transformation to support the real economy [7][8]. - The number of leasing companies and contract balances continues to decline, indicating a market cleanup, while financial leasing companies have maintained stable contract balances [18]. - The asset side of leasing companies is under pressure to transform from traditional public utility-focused models to sectors such as energy, automotive, aviation, and healthcare [33][40]. - The report highlights a significant increase in bond issuance by leasing companies, with a total direct financing amount of 847.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 13.09% year-on-year growth [25][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy - The report discusses the impact of various regulatory policies, including the "Financial Leasing Company Management Measures" and other national directives aimed at promoting equipment updates and supporting the real economy [8][10][12]. - Local governments have also introduced policies to support the development of financing leasing, particularly in manufacturing and green industries [12][13]. Overall Industry Development Status - The financing leasing industry has shifted from rapid growth to a phase of "reduction in quantity and increase in quality," with a notable decrease in the number of active leasing companies since 2020 [18][22]. - As of June 2024, the total number of registered leasing companies was approximately 8,671, down by 180 from the end of 2023 [18]. - The total contract balance for leasing companies was reported at 5.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.60% compared to the end of 2023 [22]. Financial Performance - The financial performance of sample financing leasing companies shows a downward trend in asset and profit growth, while financial leasing companies have seen some recovery [41][43]. - The net profit growth rate for sample financing leasing companies has declined, with a notable drop in the number of companies reporting positive profit growth [45]. - The average non-performing loan ratio for sample financial leasing companies has increased from 0.78% in 2018 to 0.93% in 2023, indicating rising credit risk [51][52].