财信证券宏观策略周报（1.27-1.31）：市场指数或震荡走强，关注科技成长方向

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33% to close at 3,252.63 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.29% to 10,292.73 points during the week of January 20-24, 2025[5][7] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 12,202.64 billion CNY, up 3.15% from the previous week[5][14] Market Outlook - A-shares are expected to enter a spring rally post-Chinese New Year, driven by factors such as low valuations, with the total A-share market's price-to-book ratio at 1.54, below the historical average of 85.29%[5][14] - The report anticipates a shift from earnings-driven logic to valuation and policy-driven logic as annual performance forecasts are disclosed[5][14] Investment Recommendations - Focus on technology and self-sufficiency sectors, including domestic computing power, humanoid robots, and defense industries[22][23] - Consider undervalued small-cap stocks as they may experience valuation recovery following the disclosure of 2024 earnings forecasts[22][23] Policy Support - The implementation plan for promoting long-term capital market participation aims for public funds to increase their A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years[17][22] - The plan also encourages large state-owned insurance companies to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares starting in 2025[17][22] Economic Indicators - The national general public budget revenue for 2024 is projected at 219,702 billion CNY, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year, with tax revenue declining by 3.4%[18][22] - The report highlights the need for continued consolidation of the economic recovery foundation, as evidenced by the mixed performance of tax revenues[18][22]