2025年电子行业年度策略报告：电子行业有望迎来新一轮大周期拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electronic industry, anticipating a new cyclical turning point in 2025 [1]. Core Viewpoints - The electronic industry is expected to emerge from a cyclical bottom in 2025, with the A-share technology sector still underperforming compared to major global tech companies [3][5]. - The actual upturn in the industry cycle has not yet arrived, with the market currently focused on AI infrastructure and trading based on expectations of a cyclical turning point in 2025 [7][9]. - The semiconductor recovery in 2024 is primarily driven by storage chips and AI demand, but the overall industry remains in a downward cycle when excluding storage and AI-related revenues [17][20][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The A-share technology sector has not yet exited the downward cycle that began in 2022, but 2025 is seen as a potential turning point [5]. - The market is currently trading based on expectations of a cyclical turning point in 2025, with a focus on AI infrastructure [7]. Semiconductor Market - The semiconductor recovery in 2024 is mainly attributed to storage chips and AI demand, but the overall industry remains in a downward cycle when excluding these segments [20][22]. - The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach $622.42 billion in 2024, reflecting an 18.15% year-over-year growth [28]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment themes driven by AI in 2025: development of AI underlying technologies, transformation of the smartphone supply chain, new positioning for TikTok, and acceleration of smart driving [45]. - The report highlights specific companies and their growth potential, such as Cambrian (416% increase), Rockchip (113% increase), and Haiguang Information (108% increase) in the AI chip sector [10]. Key Companies and Ratings - Companies like 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology), 立讯精密 (Luxshare Precision), and 兆易创新 (GigaDevice) are rated as "Buy," with expected significant revenue growth driven by AI and semiconductor demand [165][177][184]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving demand for various electronic components and systems, particularly in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors [204][215].