美国关税政策逐步推行，通胀预期强化，SHFE黄金价格突破历史新高

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. inflation expectations are strengthening, leading to a historical high in SHFE gold prices. The COMEX gold price increased by 1.36% to $2,777.40 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose by 1.28% to ¥648.90 per gram [1][28] - The report anticipates that the implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration will elevate inflation levels in the U.S., making gold a key hedge against accelerating inflation in 2025. The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to be upward, presenting future investment opportunities in gold [3][20][37] - The report also notes that the European Central Bank has lowered interest rates four times to combat weak growth and declining inflation, and it is expected to continue this trend in 2025 [7][20] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report indicates that the gold-silver ratio increased by 1.38% to 89.48, with SPDR gold ETF holdings decreasing by 609,022.43 ounces and SLV silver ETF holdings down by 6,602,526.40 ounces [1][28] - Recent U.S. economic indicators show a mixed outlook, with the Conference Board's leading economic index declining by 0.1% in December, and initial jobless claims rising to 223,000, above expectations [1][35] - The report emphasizes the potential for gold to serve as a hedge against inflation due to upcoming tariff implementations and other economic policies [3][20][37] Base Metals - The report notes that China's refined copper production in December increased by 4.3% year-on-year, totaling 1.242 million tons, while the total annual production reached 13.644 million tons, up 4.1% [39] - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 0.95% to $9,269.00 per ton, while aluminum prices fell by 1.83% to $2,631.50 per ton. SHFE copper prices decreased by 0.88% to ¥75,870.00 per ton [8][39] - The report highlights that the upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to reduce demand for base metals, with significant declines in production and consumption noted in various sectors [10][61] Small Metals - The report mentions that the magnesium market is experiencing low trading volumes as downstream users have completed their stocking, leading to a stable price of ¥17,860 per ton [67] - The report also notes that the market for molybdenum and vanadium is quiet as companies prepare for the upcoming holiday, with limited trading activity observed [67][74] Market Performance - The report indicates that the SW non-ferrous metal sector has seen a decline of 0.91% over the past week, with gold and lead-zinc prices increasing slightly, while aluminum and copper prices have decreased [78] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant gains observed in companies like Xinke Materials and Huayu Mining, while companies like Minfa Aluminum and Guocheng Mining faced notable declines [82]