有色金属与新材料周报：特朗普政策弱于市场预期，有色金属价格抬升

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" (预计 6 个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现 5%以上) [55] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies continues, leading to a sustained increase in gold prices. As of January 24, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.36% to $2777.4 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease of 2.2% to 860.17 tons this week. The uncertainty regarding Trump's policy direction is driving market sentiment, and the core logic for gold pricing includes short-term policy uncertainty, medium-term inflation expectations, and long-term weakening of dollar credit [4][5]. - Industrial Metals: Trump's initial policy statements are weaker than market expectations, resulting in an increase in non-ferrous metal prices [5]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Index Trends - As of January 24, 2025, the non-ferrous metals index (000819.SH) closed at 4985.06 points, down 1.1% from the previous period. The precious metals index (801053.SI) rose by 0.9% to 14555.96 points, while the industrial metals index (801055.SI) fell by 0.8% to 1849.60 points. The energy metals index (399366.SZ) decreased by 1.8% to 1465.47 points, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.5% [12]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to ongoing uncertainties in U.S. policies and inflation expectations [4]. Industrial Metals - Copper: As of January 24, SHFE copper futures fell by 0.9% to 75870 yuan/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 127,200 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 19,100 tons. LME copper inventory was 257,600 tons, with a decrease of 2,500 tons. The tightening of copper concentrate supply is expected to accelerate, and the long-term demand for copper remains strong due to recovering domestic demand and industrialization in emerging markets [7][8]. - Aluminum: As of January 24, SHFE aluminum futures fell by 0.3% to 20400 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 460,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 20,000 tons. The aluminum market sentiment is improving, and prices are expected to rise due to supply-demand dynamics [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the copper and aluminum sectors. For copper, the recommendation is to pay attention to Zijin Mining, while for aluminum, Tianshan Co. is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity [8][52].