原油月报：特朗普拟加大油气开采压制油价中枢

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that short-term supply disruptions are significant, with a marginal improvement in the pessimistic expectations for the first half of 2025. It notes that the potential increase in U.S. oil production under Trump's administration may exert downward pressure on oil prices [2][5]. Summary by Sections International Oil Price Review - In January 2025, international oil prices initially rose but then gradually declined. Key events influencing this trend included Biden's announcement to halt new offshore oil and gas development in approximately 625 million acres of U.S. coastal areas, and new sanctions against Russian oil companies, which significantly hindered Russian oil exports. Trump's inauguration led to an executive order aimed at increasing U.S. oil production, which is expected to pressure oil prices [2][3][4]. Oil Price Outlook - The EIA forecasts that oil prices will face downward pressure over the next two years, predicting an average Brent crude oil price of approximately $74 per barrel in 2025, down 8% year-on-year, and $66 per barrel in 2026, down 11% year-on-year. The report anticipates a gradual accumulation of global oil inventories starting mid-2025 due to weak demand growth and the gradual exit from OPEC+ production cuts [7][28]. OPEC Production and Compliance - OPEC's production in December 2024 was reported at 26.74 million barrels per day, with a slight increase from the previous month. The report indicates that OPEC+ members remain united in their commitment to production cuts, which are expected to alleviate supply pressures in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. Global Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for 2025 to 105.2 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The report highlights that China's oil demand is projected to increase by approximately 310,000 barrels per day in 2025, while demand from OECD countries is expected to grow by 100,000 barrels per day [25][26]. EIA Supply and Demand Projections - The EIA predicts that the global oil supply will exceed demand starting in the second quarter of 2025, with a projected surplus of 260,000 barrels per day. The report emphasizes that U.S. oil production is expected to increase, contributing to the supply surplus [28][34].