交通运输行业周报：油轮船队老化问题仍存，航空迎出入境客流高峰

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping fleet is facing aging issues, while the aviation sector is experiencing a peak in inbound and outbound passenger flow [3][10] - The supply in the aviation industry is expected to grow slowly in the long term, with demand benefiting from macroeconomic recovery, leading to a clear trend of supply-demand imbalance that drives the sector's upward elasticity [13] - The second-hand aircraft shortage is expected to persist due to the OEM & MRO dual capacity dilemma in the aircraft industry, with the aviation leasing interest spread likely to continue widening in the context of US debt interest rate cuts [13] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historically low levels, limiting downward space [16] - The logistics sector is experiencing a favorable competitive landscape, with significant growth opportunities in chemical logistics due to increasing market space and tightening industry entry barriers [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Vessels - The global dry bulk and tanker fleets are facing aging issues, with the proportion of vessels aged 21 years or older increasing to 13% for dry bulk and 18% for tankers [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% to 2045 points, with specific routes showing varying declines [5] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 14.2% to 901 points, indicating a weakening in dry bulk shipping demand [6] Aviation and Airports - Wuhan Tianhe Airport has officially entered the ranks of international first-class aviation hubs with the opening of its third runway, increasing passenger capacity from 50 million to 63 million annually [9] - The average daily inbound and outbound passenger flow during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 1.85 million, a 9.5% increase from last year [10] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 81.83%, with Spring Airlines leading at 90.81% [42] Express Logistics - The total express delivery volume reached approximately 46.19 billion pieces, a 6.06% increase week-on-week [11] - Major express companies like SF Express and Yunda Express reported significant year-on-year growth in delivery volumes, with SF Express achieving a 19.47% increase [27][37] Supply Chain Logistics - Shenzhen International's logistics park transformation is expected to provide performance elasticity, with high dividends leading to potential value reassessment [16] - The logistics sector is experiencing a favorable competitive landscape, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics showing significant improvements in profitability [16]