军工本周观点：业绩风险正逐步释放

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][43][85] Core Viewpoints - The defense and military industry index decreased by 1.18% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.54%, resulting in an underperformance of -1.72 percentage points [3][43] - As of January 25, 2025, a total of 122 companies in the military stock pool have disclosed earnings forecasts, with 28 companies (23%) expected to turn profitable or show positive growth. The shipbuilding sector performed the best, with a 57.1% rate of profitability or growth [3][43] - The military sector's overall performance is expected to slow down due to personnel adjustments, with several companies explicitly mentioning reduced revenue and profit in their forecasts [3][43] - Positive signals of industry demand recovery are observed, with companies like Zhongjian Technology and Beimo Gaoke showing better-than-expected market performance and demand for new products [4][43] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The military index has shown a 9.56% increase since May 2024, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.23 percentage points [8][16] - The engine sector performed relatively well, while the aerospace sector faced challenges due to poor earnings forecasts from key companies [20][22] Earnings Forecasts - The earnings forecast disclosure period is nearing completion, with expectations for a recovery in demand in Q4 2024 and into 2025, coinciding with the transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th [4][44] - The military industry is anticipated to have reached a bottom, with production tasks expected to be assigned in 2025 [4][44] Investment Opportunities - Investment recommendations focus on traditional main battle equipment and high-elasticity sectors that will span the 15th Five-Year Plan, including aircraft, engines, and missiles [7][52] - Specific companies to watch include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Electromechanical, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft [7][52] Financing and Valuation - The financing buy-in amount has significantly increased, indicating a stable confidence from leveraged funds in the military sector [4][33] - As of January 24, the military sector's current TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 60.09, with a percentile rank of 76.38%, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investment at this time [4][49]