平安证券：晨会纪要-20250127

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend, supported by moderate policy signals from the Trump administration and ongoing domestic policy support aimed at expanding domestic demand [2][7][28] - The report recommends focusing on growth styles represented by new productivity (TMT/innovative drugs) and advanced manufacturing (automobiles/machinery/defense) [2][7] - The top ten stock picks for February include Haiguang Information, Shenghong Technology, Hengxuan Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, Silis, Nuo Cheng Jianhua, Juhua Co., Midea Group, and Chengdu Bank [2][7] Group 2 - The oil supply-demand balance is showing signs of marginal improvement, with expectations of supply surplus being delayed and overall surplus volume likely to be adjusted downwards [13][40] - The report predicts global oil supply for 2025 to be approximately 104.27 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the EIA's estimate of 104.36 million barrels per day, with a slight inventory build of 11,000 barrels per day [13][40] - The impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran is expected to significantly reduce their oil exports, with estimates suggesting a short-term impact of around 1 million barrels per day for Russian oil [9][10] Group 3 - The global ESG market is experiencing uneven development, with accelerated regulatory frameworks in some regions and a slowdown in investment growth [3][16] - In 2024, the domestic ESG market is expected to become more active due to clear policy support for green finance and standardized ESG disclosures [3][18] - The report highlights the potential for increased ESG product innovation and the expansion of broad-based products integrating ESG strategies [3][18] Group 4 - The computer industry is expected to see a dual enhancement in performance and valuation, driven by the recovery of demand and the iterative upgrades of domestic large models [35][36] - The report recommends focusing on the domestic software sector, particularly companies involved in AI and cloud computing, as well as those in the Huawei supply chain [35][36] Group 5 - The real estate sector is currently viewed as a good investment opportunity, with expectations of a recovery in sales post-Spring Festival [46][48] - The report suggests focusing on companies with light historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, as well as those with valuation recovery potential [46][48]